FROZEN PREDICTION

Boise State vs Fresno State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Boise State by 3.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T14:52:49.571407-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.4061 · 80% margin interval -19.7 to 13.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	-0.16186671493577054
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	-0.10346675081138784
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	0.04112090741579263
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	-0.05443860195849707
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	-0.11134375740536431
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.0242348520908965
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.009819620339306251
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.014398746253850445
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.021806943179928262
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.004505674179506151
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	-0.1802300313265826
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.06744008159102499	-0.013113154658923792
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	-0.03040876577579956
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	-0.1600403208613193
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.0007298391203098692
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.0009192013637779189

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.