FROZEN PREDICTION

Minnesota vs Purdue

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Minnesota by 0.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T15:15:25.777595-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.4728 · 80% margin interval -17.5 to 15.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.05226299280477825
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.036790312761649305
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.04005743567228075
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.11044410108212846
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.02807971059442024
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.014540911254537896
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.007172293154310715
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.01441725713873836
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.013551457547526853
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.004409164568773344
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.06670024803813188
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.14545487026355364
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.004478126008583168
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.22330225892154695
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.044073889761224325
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.21899090935109727

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.