FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida Atlantic vs Florida

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 1 · revision 1 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida by 11.0

Why this pick?

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthStrongly leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-05T14:51:06.902791-05:00 · Snapshot 1 · Home win probability 0.8012 · 80% margin interval -5.7 to 27.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 1
Engine version: 3.6.0-bounded-insane-controls
Evidence cutoff: Aug 26, 2026 · 9:47 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`preseason_portal`	0.176471
`preseason_recruiting`	0.294118
`preseason_returning`	0.235294
`preseason_talent`	0.294118

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.176471	0.17647058823529413	0.17647058823529413	-0.10677158721543631
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.294118	0.29411764705882354	0.29411764705882354	0.6701145294243702
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.235294	0.23529411764705882	0.23529411764705882	0.006328289393390862
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.294118	0.29411764705882354	0.29411764705882354	0.6443959695313033

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.