FROZEN PREDICTION

LSU vs Kentucky

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Kentucky by 1.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T17:08:05.154556-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5431 · 80% margin interval -15.3 to 18.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.08705320319704207
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.07358062552329862
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0801148713445615
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.08380233638450214
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.10087500189821702
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.007187836813322711
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.008408617040505217
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.0345467555787736
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0014797568586379858
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.029238438126892773
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.01798622515086956
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.03593590912393678
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.1555321948349624
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.1259441251345503
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.08814777952244866
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.