FROZEN PREDICTION

USC vs Penn State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Penn State by 1.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T18:07:32.312600-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5331 · 80% margin interval -15.6 to 17.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.04331807045653638
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.026505474543316684
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.08166283588615723
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.11038718931474466
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.055313822673812026
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.0004972096013213696
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.008135647641945912
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.007936845716908177
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.03574938524573494
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.02390744696188177
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.16366922132226694
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.02290517410541212
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.029786864903326497
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.0423186839618162
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.020939203037123686
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.13315707415493439

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.