FROZEN PREDICTION

Jacksonville State vs Ohio

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Jacksonville State by 5.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T14:45:17.157885-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.3285 · 80% margin interval -22.4 to 10.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1192368839427663	-0.22381448084385142
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044713831478537365	-0.0005708848129421587
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07452305246422894	-0.1336589076278715
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07452305246422894	-0.12574760085413555
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.030405405405405407	0.0010909076000896432
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	0.018751120585067435
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	0.007360767329588243
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	0.025543701477849134
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	-0.030708792549883693
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08942766295707473	-0.18239435947460064
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05961844197138315	-0.07566335760021621
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044713831478537365	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08942766295707473	-0.29807466920255604
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044713831478537365	-0.043380053350606046
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1192368839427663	-0.12053772340960439

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.