FROZEN PREDICTION

Buffalo vs Florida International

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Buffalo by 2.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T14:45:17.157885-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.4189 · 80% margin interval -19.3 to 14.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1141460609545716	-0.10596181276817723
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04280477285796435	-0.023959187192580174
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.0285365152386429	-0.0290601647002982
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07134128809660725	-0.10530339382707775
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07134128809660725	-0.024625569501099294
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	-0.04208969577150017
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.004342202866553013
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.0007025062294230555
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.05297269947457574
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.021759447920515804
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.0856095457159287	-0.1773480584666409
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.0570730304772858	-0.03277673657489352
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04280477285796435	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	-0.029791680331331866
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04280477285796435	0.0001917441641246173
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1141460609545716	-0.24490697125894192

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.