FROZEN PREDICTION

Arkansas vs Utah

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah by 5.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home
Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect
Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable
Defensive toughnessNeutral effect
Scoring punchModerately leans home
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceModerately leans home
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionModerately leans home
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsNeutral effect
Recent formSmall effect
Wins away from homeNeutral effect
Tough schedulesNot used — data unavailable
Statement winsNeutral effect
WinningNeutral effect
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T14:45:17.157885-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.6558 · 80% margin interval -11.4 to 21.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.114414414414414430.114414414414414430.09139562083294671
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0429054054054054040.0429054054054054040.03104314456656087
Close-game gritData unavailableData unavailable0.0270270.027027027027027030.027027027027027030.0
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.071509009009009010.071509009009009010.0
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.071509009009009010.071509009009009010.13927944832951172
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.035472972972972970.03547297297297297-0.04678060843000324
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.04729729729729730.04729729729729730.06605547381168377
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.059121621621621630.05912162162162163-0.0044208348614687976
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.04729729729729730.04729729729729730.09704089715068076
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.059121621621621630.05912162162162163-0.028603430119541685
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.085810810810810810.085810810810810810.0
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.057207207207207210.057207207207207210.04248284595409253
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0429054054054054040.0429054054054054040.0
Tough schedulesData unavailableData unavailable0.0810810.081081081081081090.081081081081081090.0
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0429054054054054040.0429054054054054040.0
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.114414414414414430.114414414414414430.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.