FROZEN PREDICTION

Delaware vs Middle Tennessee

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Middle Tennessee by 0.4

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-12T09:59:42.752034-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.5126 · 80% margin interval -16.2 to 17.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.04830849342692514
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.04316036133815553
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.03962522006513919
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.05605641636450239
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.01423797560340169
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.007948898458632541
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.023325638638977936
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.040810136522437174
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.011764994634656339
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.00033647784677230674
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.008670643311111281
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.09230317037420832
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.