FROZEN PREDICTION

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Sam Houston by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-12T09:59:42.752034-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.5691 · 80% margin interval -14.4 to 18.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.0761385157954461
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.0028829183691241045
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.04287030514636685
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.12124803526226813
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.03276543541357717
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.01714649711030857
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.02480000052045635
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.016022654306922235
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.009451250196607171
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.021942187517435645
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.004859811315732751
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	-0.11874085483584829
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.002030651025652086
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.04410829466394853
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.03045118630365981
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	-0.07052979338999027

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.