FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida vs Texas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas by 5.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-12T09:59:42.752034-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.6648 · 80% margin interval -11.1 to 22.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.0350875979451693
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.1021663840514458
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.030498449023412123
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.1393447986016466
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.0974883823493389
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.0038173284603154976
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.013598996235624819
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.02157866042329102
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.009344257972759569
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.018842710900071738
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.07740670088415647
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.08342909099526907
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.03878793708765746
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.033036518674396956
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.024346093426085253
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.07518597533253984

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.