FROZEN PREDICTION

TCU vs Baylor

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Baylor by 6.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessNeutral effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-12T09:59:42.752034-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.6803 · 80% margin interval -10.6 to 22.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.05748473657650656
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.028267326184788152
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.0
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.03772528399011564
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.008509737836462528
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.00942479489641344
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.010896377945497126
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.02943937329290315
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.0035405780721780925
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.12259794246865865
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.09190881909777947
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0349524989298151
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.15241731823068017
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04618318034224811
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.23203485858975764

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.