FROZEN PREDICTION

Washington vs Purdue

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Purdue by 5.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-13T21:33:10.396344-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.6682 · 80% margin interval -11.0 to 22.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.07633260468217909
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.07557292174707067
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.014957907206040039
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.021128259120990457
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.08305958660698745
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.02944901723772575
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.023133404430559418
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.018633564870121976
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0035825692367025034
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.004140451534968274
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.09929989063298929
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.04327126340516778
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.061896678412600006
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.18838679405469885
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.