FROZEN PREDICTION

Mississippi State vs LSU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

LSU by 4.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-13T21:33:10.396344-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.6198 · 80% margin interval -12.7 to 20.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.10734194761887825
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.10294921264994703
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.08802256843826513
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.1064248392536855
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.037849675686660936
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.01726882883240771
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.005095914837740907
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.011533401763073537
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.004463656403918484
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.011425036918283706
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.04348495023346935
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.14619380201547238
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.15762630471876019
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.03265742305222412
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.0643598760162498
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.07518597533253984

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.