FROZEN PREDICTION

Washington State vs Oregon State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon State by 12.5

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-13T21:33:10.396344-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.8313 · 80% margin interval -4.2 to 29.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.3173314762856617
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.05905963214542866
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	0.044572150908320916
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.07433311067226887
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.20008225327953494
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.006995059580781494
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.01979463892124365
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00254905773662525
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.01610858124183987
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.012430185549677779
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.07869301055084711
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	0.1782415927932627
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.046837541205686284
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.030733117859469423
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.12069600711792561
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.3020655850353364

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.