FROZEN PREDICTION

Nevada vs North Dakota State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Dakota State by 9.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionHome data unavailable

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-13T21:33:10.396344-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.7772 · 80% margin interval -6.7 to 26.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.15564116570476838
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.030582414855782374
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.04317187585616604
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.11204091837143851
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.044740584257374705
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.006372325259720533
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.05375166769330944
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.011776532870293583
Returning production	Data unavailable	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.005144932491183578
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.031885457099294544
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.14203116754422812
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.06504707062672065
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.06665318281110631
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.007396360322745932
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.0643598760162498
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.25736808003129363

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.