FROZEN PREDICTION

Notre Dame vs BYU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

BYU by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-13T21:33:10.396344-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.5691 · 80% margin interval -14.4 to 18.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	-0.01997417818952124
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.004473721636345421
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.04345041752994421
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.008839820632541184
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	-0.06931207210546102
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.00870101835135979
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.0013900268167801634
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.01988676523142356
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.023622613626284025
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.03364129699626817
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.02710193586231152
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	-0.05437681739627056
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.029470679451297388
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.14757368909744117
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.05112996678234166
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	-0.012149103960905572

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.