FROZEN PREDICTION

Wisconsin vs UCLA

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCLA by 6.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactNeutral effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-13T21:33:10.396344-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.6967 · 80% margin interval -10.0 to 23.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.046628655470996844
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.12114568364909209
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.03884431094698429
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.055626837346684645
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.0
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.008902618885769964
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.009890256908059405
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.02024930438136195
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0006528591314278222
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.1357824592650062
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.027746058595556067
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.08948264528756769
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.024743429778152574
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04618318034224814
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.11601742929487877

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.