FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana Tech vs UL Monroe

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana Tech by 7.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-13T21:33:10.396344-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.2948 · 80% margin interval -23.7 to 9.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.23745936749450788
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.01615275781987894
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.08632072267631105
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.14506770833080299
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.19771161372695817
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.031092213648434258
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.022981097698740932
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.009357252310845363
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.019626248861935435
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.003814968141908622
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.1301771551858234
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.058960374515556635
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.16488220473961096
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04618318034224812
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.25137109680557074

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.