FROZEN PREDICTION

East Carolina vs UAB

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

East Carolina by 1.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-14T22:00:33.706227-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.4703 · 80% margin interval -17.6 to 15.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.14033406682646696
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.03965116546543086
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.014969421724050549
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.039404219551758574
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.08588569350072808
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.026789270159479208
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.03002948000192777
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.015060206567382786
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.0416684126802869
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.0060304608326105825
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.01765449874135573
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.09412233805797036
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.011043286595473413
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.09894684306468514
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.05568147175424387
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.05968774281173679

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.