FROZEN PREDICTION

Colorado State vs Texas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas State by 4.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-14T22:00:33.706227-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.6388 · 80% margin interval -12.0 to 21.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	0.025910656055975097
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.019890504123379463
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.04287030514636685
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	0.08630312015232537
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	-0.06030999764657656
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.003965703069419422
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.023865657344048306
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.003555178774062971
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.02834902613390674
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.005383722402643844
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	0.07663776565964321
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.0679650238473768	0.18992391223664784
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	0.000322325559627315
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	-0.012150746087736412
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.00006623997489931845
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	0.0007807512904516589

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.