FROZEN PREDICTION

Memphis vs Tulane

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Memphis by 3.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-14T22:00:33.706227-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.3923 · 80% margin interval -20.2 to 13.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.17858388784753498
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.015761343520628336
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.030498449023412123
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.08473279951356316
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.18924422495999407
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.026926050195901316
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.0011589185686884263
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.0018200871370310568
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.002516607905710601
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.002639003807335191
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.08413129786411341
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.1400735407444536
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.02145645287196079
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.12278576767003122
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.15672623670074604
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.25736808003129363

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.