FROZEN PREDICTION

Cincinnati vs West Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

West Virginia by 1.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-14T22:00:33.706227-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.5322 · 80% margin interval -15.6 to 17.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.014400539525568499
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.024139632436133124
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.04314884682014502
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.08488237386068476
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.05029044021641248
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.0018558300973261818
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.01127577980740144
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.00640679404543676
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.011735787101171083
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.0031253365516162026
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.04329831524075603
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.04304913473581022
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.07854538385404822
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.08843999125920295
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.05568147175424387
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.17570517210661563

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.