FROZEN PREDICTION

Charleston Southern vs Clemson

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Clemson by 15.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-14T22:00:33.706227-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.8754 · 80% margin interval -1.7 to 31.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.10810810810810811	0.1495576591012773
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.00202150266220974
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.08399095807048476
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.06756756756756757	0.15308211832936325
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.06756756756756757	0.05517431364420371
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.04054054054054054	0.05466498882120859
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.05405405405405406	0.09565868875039407
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.06756756756756757	0.1342265881053571
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.05405405405405406	0.0805311830456681
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.06756756756756757	0.15064731875159326
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.08108108108108109	0.17098764997816818
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.05405405405405406	0.062068496545267526
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.06689639218668053
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.08108108108108109	0.2763154504369378
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.06932075501466192
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.10810810810810811	0.1778753578137288

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.