FROZEN PREDICTION

Ohio vs Sacramento State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio by 4.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionHome data unavailable

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-14T22:00:33.706227-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.3568 · 80% margin interval -21.4 to 11.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.18729066591146365
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.029938596876709855
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.015259477915839228
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.12128063710882539
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.08114811156335257
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.006866541425754005
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.009330966054858891
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0147274052002429
Returning production	Data unavailable	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.010588794192974356
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.023616095217442762
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.048422688226161345
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.20177620684564845
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.00038679067155278357
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.023593144713688757
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.04043756957564403
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.303758776099714

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.