FROZEN PREDICTION

Fresno State vs San Diego State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

San Diego State by 2.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-14T22:00:33.706227-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.5604 · 80% margin interval -14.7 to 18.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.03712253873969018
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.08974744323624023
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.031154120260332385
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.002497200471550623
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.0034149109764445014
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.006721424362569792
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0032484788185669876
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.026285154725806392
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0009373417094702668
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.0852164637830892
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.15325239122663586
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.013077442749116226
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.2745073858416039
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.12004134777049368
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20103839354815164

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.