FROZEN PREDICTION

Ball State vs Bowling Green

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Bowling Green by 4.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T21:07:08.184318-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.6352 · 80% margin interval -12.2 to 21.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.06321272466800187
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.000549127308404597
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.014656336496240844
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.1020930557156473
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	-0.03603515861908366
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.02711733071079859
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.004918862232343935
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.006357581562683701
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0016874420317801592
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.004031957070615051
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.021539075428539972
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	0.15068252487743825
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.03979973981243021
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.08904886890025342
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.00042378698547947125
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.10272038255156238

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.