FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida Atlantic vs Army

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Army by 1.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T21:07:08.184318-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.5322 · 80% margin interval -15.6 to 17.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.018104006082440748
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.12518387310406182
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.04316036133815553
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.08932323877413054
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.03886564132708749
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.012833455766315652
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0162227117911807
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.030739792474382147
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.009190068911541196
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.02778748236161085
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.05833890224070397
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.10803621565644644
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.03259559642312364
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.005242140611533039
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04618318034224812
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.11601742929487885

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.