FROZEN PREDICTION

New Mexico vs Hawai'i

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico by 9.0

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchStrongly leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T21:07:08.184318-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.2440 · 80% margin interval -25.7 to 7.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.38751773709623316
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.03999048025044675
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.0017018457619540697
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.2231245007029975
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.2502761958891945
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.00620708763182806
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.00032460941455711694
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.025310871905891458
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.0009070478138587489
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.015419557090879249
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.041468772130392545
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.15909807381204844
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.014418922836844428
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.008965151143380784
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.18806161502890467
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.37674356565476735

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.