FROZEN PREDICTION

Nebraska vs Oregon

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon by 3.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T21:07:08.184318-05:00 · Snapshot 483 · Home win probability 0.6030 · 80% margin interval -13.3 to 20.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 11, 2026 · 3:42 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.06197851634445811
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.022986954538778817
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.030475419987391086
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.03345298503962851
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.03069936569011586
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.031232785369554383
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.03496836186609327
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.040246706353498335
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.023674534919569567
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.02858071985754285
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.03776944574459602
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.009726983787815488
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.029423635079578486
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.1827441945905432
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.09637090208838148
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.14135065073641487

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.