FROZEN PREDICTION

Middle Tennessee vs Florida International

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida International by 6.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.6809 · 80% margin interval -10.5 to 22.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.11285274904078724
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.10466963100200956
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.06053943192884467
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.18502578490703514
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.02836651934092843
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.011401396324580856
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.007851181870951685
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.004757660374723577
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0004672916395698926
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.005306136244995922
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.013058668161165125
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.1335566837609381
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.03625117133267146
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.03965498607384162
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.