FROZEN PREDICTION

Liberty vs Kennesaw State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Liberty by 5.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.3480 · 80% margin interval -21.7 to 11.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.16565037676334315
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.10885641624208994
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045404573946633504
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.03821123109722216
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.07905093035930806
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.008290338986094178
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.004608332763794718
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.01918727020200478
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.016718656437944998
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.017755434482289424
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.049682489665885954
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.1282144164105006
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03938772468718018
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.13524148726782548
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.11896495822152484
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.40363727138157574

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.