FROZEN PREDICTION

USC vs Wisconsin

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wisconsin by 3.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.6176 · 80% margin interval -12.8 to 20.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14558898521162672	0.0775943810543753
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	-0.058448068053944764
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03639724630290668	-0.0034765789611337222
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.09099311575726671	0.10378814250781203
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.09099311575726671	-0.02375220542900082
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.005067567567567568	0.03578609978598999
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	-0.009786099850308186
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.0046098179795148395
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	-0.013087315545233472
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	0.008049149611229956
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10919173890872005	-0.07172662222018031
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07279449260581336	0.11913453271167132
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	-0.039004200381485964
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10919173890872005	0.08629292227007666
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	0.037987998833172304
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14558898521162672	-0.04635241880547669

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.