FROZEN PREDICTION

Iowa vs Minnesota

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Iowa by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.4231 · 80% margin interval -19.2 to 14.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.13179022279666824
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04605463764088421
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.07832869850348387
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.0631972529002142
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.0039473433329869296
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0191847172543162
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0014619969476187475
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.01593983703866185
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00013120260805505376
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.10203295869863722
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.03561511566958349
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.06501736984921935
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.046428625997107745
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03965498607384162
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10090931784539396

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.