FROZEN PREDICTION

Virginia Tech vs Clemson

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Clemson by 2.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.5739 · 80% margin interval -14.2 to 19.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.07857046137468299
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.12328206752957821
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.05880114244827782
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.03995007547546704
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.15896736592933966
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.016387561483647835
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.01747275994881531
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.02301770931802663
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.0022570014392828833
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.042356993703323964
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.05423368384394452
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.009935631873356535
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.030185445068776004
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.19358757779957522
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.01550024064353497
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.040957217513469604

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.