FROZEN PREDICTION

Houston vs Utah

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.5710 · 80% margin interval -14.3 to 19.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14023457419683835	-0.0034527884594015845
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	0.014467153449199688
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	0.04528251864032535
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08764660887302397	-0.02057186871025242
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08764660887302397	-0.004534711989179652
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.013165427739744554
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.03176029222104831
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.008680666013802601
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.00020925999178042845
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.009645471153589137
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10517593064762876	-0.08902684834700383
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.07011728709841918	0.03417168634398077
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	-0.03897639422666398
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10517593064762876	-0.15992691220485547
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	0.06816683193479284
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14023457419683835	0.09299836517662355

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.