FROZEN PREDICTION

Colorado vs Oklahoma State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oklahoma State by 11.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.8014 · 80% margin interval -5.7 to 27.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.18326447064460566
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.08053852334554627
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.08641615515846797
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.17257047798759215
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.044779397158861034
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.010739288302337594
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.0011150085956020015
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.008761718241935463
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.009927243488319755
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.2617864572051326
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.22608475427051605
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.02492872757468271
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.06926119315726348
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.09153812785336239
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.23293539988456752

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.