FROZEN PREDICTION

Baylor vs Kansas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Baylor by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.4299 · 80% margin interval -19.0 to 14.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.10146837756384723
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.064430818676437
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.057894774466412266
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.0020254743037293535
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.011263698301337124
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0043059245101349595
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.005645819890816695
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.03278829670982071
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.003970140457204488
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.1483822451200822
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.08735092778633577
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.03606021358305101
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.1178029359055821
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04576906392668119
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.23293539988456752

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.