FROZEN PREDICTION

Rice vs Florida Atlantic

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida Atlantic by 9.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.7676 · 80% margin interval -7.2 to 26.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.14046963137174148
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0023214896728332574
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.08907085841270015
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.006098492810279577
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.167699133170724
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.015763330444942932
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.0020923869019612157
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.0021311425948536324
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.021883250301218325
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.006203925819221849
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.10554206537495119
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.17404995114614955
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0016192149253017388
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.11552795042853736
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.05515522671737658
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.37823843596499596

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.