FROZEN PREDICTION

Western Michigan vs Toledo

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Toledo by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.5788 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.039289097625745624
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.041867852400803825
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.030269715964422347
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.10334462508834555
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.09450349979405674
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.01230102340977322
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0088154812877917
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.003047399794490328
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.011747192605854216
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.010821692037464324
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.029426599811378983
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.028492092535666806
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.035143450734623286
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0727794105090445
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.03965498607384162
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.