FROZEN PREDICTION

LSU vs Auburn

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

LSU by 1.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.4423 · 80% margin interval -18.5 to 14.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.1781835982514124
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.010048557627404225
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.05995689523964666
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.02478833761936973
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.17380847774475222
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.00005657592694144429
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.006658067490648685
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.004411547816709348
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.010723321882102987
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.011540465745507461
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.11537142650554245
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.12726153610232901
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.11677909224584115
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.035169384586708985
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.10957879543082946
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.040957217513469604

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.