FROZEN PREDICTION

Eastern Michigan vs Ohio

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio by 4.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.6437 · 80% margin interval -11.9 to 21.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.10821818518797781
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.031628986353395956
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03639724630290668	0.015130197688697581
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.05939818284627184
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.04215626938177282
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	0.008563320328116061
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	0.004811649249648777
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.00896147763923381
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	0.002802175018781091
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.018299422798599287
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	-0.017332015883129687
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07279449260581336	-0.010317684932357504
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	-0.057318396004663624
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	0.09684434797110188
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.012006481870483775
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.05772947431808291

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.