FROZEN PREDICTION

Old Dominion vs Louisiana Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana Tech by 8.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.7477 · 80% margin interval -8.0 to 25.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14558898521162672	0.1747516238280159
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	0.007710751076125434
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03639724630290668	0.05937435855044866
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.09099311575726671	-0.018033871534937386
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.09099311575726671	0.22209870637795176
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.005067567567567568	-0.010477223070027648
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	-0.012830158934578107
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.01056124895024588
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	0.025516166012568106
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.019637754597234814
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10919173890872005	0.09631917775246583
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07279449260581336	0.037711902815427155
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	-0.01751804167043681
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10919173890872005	0.13401151940959183
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	0.017025446194865172
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14558898521162672	0.1963646323569871

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.