FROZEN PREDICTION

San José State vs Nevada

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Nevada by 4.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.6245 · 80% margin interval -12.5 to 20.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.1357526124784189
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0113649457914069
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.058810463035304975
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.05092832362962396
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.05698725476986709
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.01347754325909701
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.009236718575237817
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.0014524101489631
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.014744072474456093
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.01494555613019186
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.02181055686636922
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.039041627647897065
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.0022941623464643665
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.007173782507944315
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0948102127912182
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.056515599610359436

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.