FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia State vs Arkansas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia State by 3.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.4014 · 80% margin interval -19.9 to 13.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.1359300476947536	-0.18346585496256596
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	-0.04103535073222973
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.015012802675903016
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08495627980922099	-0.06196045608032404
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08495627980922099	-0.11933077915102175
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.006516209715892604
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.019497029128446898
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.007768977398071607
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.009707707025758376
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.0002407715197133998
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10194753577106519	-0.006001737805520921
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.0679650238473768	-0.08005709673272089
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	-0.0239913874893397
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10194753577106519	0.12438206196011663
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	-0.14747680408247607
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.1359300476947536	-0.2783520537759748

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.