FROZEN PREDICTION

UTSA vs Tulane

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UTSA by 4.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-15T22:35:43.819415-05:00 · Snapshot 502 · Home win probability 0.3687 · 80% margin interval -21.0 to 12.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.1528174314345677
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.04083230154477264
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.030852252653620356
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.06748000684996328
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.13308624032386698
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.01563481228991545
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.001100084844606948
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.008644733119608396
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.029311144878327554
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.0018139412528351173
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.20567805035181258
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.05945683134301831
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.08772536283847737
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.04720843139831649
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07603788720982743
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.2583342353011473

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.