FROZEN PREDICTION

Kansas vs Kansas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Kansas State by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.5791 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.005757687911827333
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.008076378909939473
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.018151390965296332
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.034164449183840276
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.032772129532007775
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0017583495582177734
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.008796481386299456
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.04151107398179201
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.00010029430134977577
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.018026586868927635
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.0416190878933341
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.1007017217183055
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.11601742929487878

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.