FROZEN PREDICTION

Pittsburgh vs Boston College

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Pittsburgh by 8.2

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.2651 · 80% margin interval -24.8 to 8.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.27049822128861534
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.06320854289083087
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.0005826346113320426
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.06430362978990367
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.20285548038389273
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.002018074289930748
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.0230914940384237
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.005560011801446065
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.019394177860788748
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.004367976637522287
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.286729284402989
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.0764975647990124
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.0796337046026732
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.05383370879819864
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.1167124541105815
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.25736808003129363

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.