FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia State vs James Madison

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

James Madison by 5.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.6675 · 80% margin interval -11.0 to 22.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.1359300476947536	0.009841223326392867
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	0.06863586562665648
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	0.04517529232791931
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08495627980922099	0.04197597938990753
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08495627980922099	-0.004751402100335644
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.01722292949132646
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.045380600279075936
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.002810537753167551
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.021130391548577942
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.016379066542953312
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10194753577106519	0.13523808261212955
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.0679650238473768	0.03433709704913012
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	0.0495544627153447
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10194753577106519	-0.011077293951043038
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	-0.06880547145525123
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.1359300476947536	0.12482704917899992

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.