FROZEN PREDICTION

Massachusetts vs Buffalo

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Buffalo by 1.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionNeutral effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.5378 · 80% margin interval -15.4 to 17.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.1094887268978157
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.046183452178765405
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.05983162882416014
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.09872477741791726
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.020141083525939123
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.006462627224239064
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.006610552480507967
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.01905278196905437
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.003103446305917728
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.012640883898239795
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.019832662394035236
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.011352400768670699
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.18802659098558336
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.12004134777049368
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10051919677407581

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.